When to buy

Adama Traore was a star in Wolves’ comeback against Manchester City to win 3–2 last night. With Leicester and Manchester City losing this game week, Liverpool seem almost impossible to catch. But that’s not what I want to talk about here.

Traore is one of my favourite players. Watching him against Newcastle was significant for me. Elite dribbler who drifts past players, glides to the byline and is an amazing athlete. Given my rugby background, I often complain about the lack of muscle that football players put on. Meanwhile…

Moe tweeted this following the interest in Adama Traore and it’s something I’ve thought about recently and Traore is a good example. Many of football scouting/analytics football twitter, including me, will go on about finding value in the transfer market. The transfer market is hugely inefficient, high risk and poses a challenge to find value and talent that makes us so interested in it.

I’m going to explain what I’m thinking, propose a scenario and then hopefully get opinions on it. There will be a Twitter poll at the end and then feel free to reply to it with your reasoning.

The Scenario

You’re the Head of Recruitment for Spurs. Congratulations. You’re looking for a centre half to replace Alderweireld/Vertonghen in a few years. You’ve found a 20 your old centre half playing for an Austrian club that isn’t Salzburg. He fits the mould of a modern ball playing defender, you think he could have lot of potential and playing at an average Austrian Bundesliga level. Right now he’d be fourth/fifth choice centre half in Spur’s first team squad with ageing centre backs so wouldn’t get much of a look in on first team minutes in a Champions League team. He has a £12m release clause and reasonable wages.

So, do you:

1. Buy early and keep at club to be depth or play for U23s
2. Buy early and loan out to a similar level he was playing before or slightly above
3. Wait until they’re more proven to be ready from their performances in Austria
4. Wait until they move to a higher level and prove themselves there

With Option 1 you risk them not getting the minutes they need to develop but you can develop them in house and how you want to. They might get the chance to get in the first team squad and play a few minutes and really impress. But you can’t know that.

Option 2 means you’ve spent the £12m and you’re hoping he can still develop playing elsewhere under a different coach. He might still not be ready to compete in your squad a year later.

Option 3, you wait and hope no one else signs him first. You hope he carries on playing and developing and that he’s still available in a transfer window or two for a similar price.

Option 4 means he might move to a team like Aston Villa or Bournemouth first. If he gets minutes and does well in the Premier League you can try and get him but he may now cost £35m+. Or he might not be able to reach the Premier League level and you didn’t waste £12m and can chase another option.

Option 4 is the reason I wanted to pose this question.

Harry Maguire, Declan Rice, Nathan Aké, Michael Keane, Sean Longstaff, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Wilfred Zaha, Ruben Neves, Virgil Van Dijk and now Adama Traore. If you’re a top 6 side, buying from within the Premier League is expensive business.

Above I’ve listed some players who have moved up the league for huge fees or ones with huge asking prices when bigger clubs want them. This doesn’t offer good value to many. £80m on Harry Maguire or Virgil Van Dijk, you know what you’re getting so it may be worth it for you even if you might be slightly overpaying in the eyes of many.

So when should you buy?

Disclaimer, I know that this isn’t the perfect question or scenario and I think I know what most people will say. Maybe changing the teams or pricetags would change it quite a bit. I considered giving a total transfer budget so you know how important that £12m is but thought it overcomplicated it. But overall I wanted to pose the question and hear some opinions so please vote on the poll and share it with others who might be interested as well as voice your thoughts in reply to the poll.