Rating Transfer Rumours-Part 3 Pavard, Gueye and Allan
Merry Christmas Eve. This is my third article rating transfer rumours, please also take a look at part 1 and part 2 if you missed them. I’ve picked three transfer I’ve seen circulating I want to talk about, which are:
- Benjamin Pavard — Stuttgart to Napoli
- Idrissa Gueye — Everton to PSG
- Allan — Napoli to Bayern Munich
Benjamin Pavard to Napoli
Pavard arrived on most people’s radars following his unexpectedly large role in France’s World Cup winning campaign, playing 90 minutes in 6 of their 7 matches. He was also played at right back despite only really playing centre half for Stuttgart. This season Stuttgart have used him in both roles but still mainly at centre back.
With Koulibaly gaining large amounts of interest from Europe’s biggest clubs, including Manchester United which I discussed in part one of this series. One of the rules in Soccernomics is to replace players before you’ve sold them and to sell if you’re offered more than their value. This looks like the scenario for Napoli. Pavard is a technical, ball playing centre back, which is shown by his ability to play full back. He possesses a good range of passing and good physicality.
At just 22 he looks like a good replacement for Koulibally. And even if he stayed at Napoli they would make a strong centre back partnership under Ancelotti. Napoli currently lack depth in that position and their other starting centre half is 33 year old Albiol. Behind their starting two, they have Nikola Maksimovic, who also plays full back, and youngster Sebastiano Luperto.
I really like Pavard and can see him leaving Stuttgart before the start of next season. Napoli would be a good location and a style that would suit him, while also giving Champions League football under a top manager while Stuttgart struggle towards the bottom of the Bundesliga. Although, it will be disappointed to lose him but could probably reinvest the large transfer fee they’ll gain from him.
Stuttgart: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Napoli: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Pavard: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Idrissa Gueye to Paris Saint-Germain
Gueye inevitably draws comparisons to N’golo Kanté (who I wrote about this season here) due to his work rate in midfield and massive defensive output and his ability to break up the midfield well. Gueye has made 4.5 tackles and 2.3 interceptions per 90 minutes. Ranking 4th in the top five league and top in the Premier League for tackles for midfielders. He’s also 21st in for interceptions in the top five leagues.
PSG are seeking a defensive midfielder to improve their team and therefore Champions League chances. They have looked at N’Golo Kanté and are also being heavily linked with Napoli’s Allan due to Rabiot leaving in summer as his contract expires.
The deal makes sense as Rabiot leaves and would benefit from a workhorse midfielder to partner Verratti. Marquinhos has been used in midfield but is primarily a defender and has a different style than a player like Gueye and doesn’t match his defensive output.
Gueye is a better option than Kanté due to the price I believe, especially with PSG’s issues with FFP. Gueye can effectively still bring to PSG the destruction into midfield that the French Champions are looking for.
It will be a big blow for Everton who are trying to finish in the top 6. Outside of Gueye they lack a defensive midfielder. In yesterday’s match vs Tottenham, they conceded 6 goals at home with a central midfield of Davies and Gomes, two players who I wouldn’t describe as defensively minded. Without Gueye, Spurs were allowed to run through the midfield and play quick football and score 6. I think the result would have been affected if Gueye was able to play.
Everton: ⭐⭐
PSG: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Gueye: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Allan to Bayern Munich
Bayern have struggled this season in the Bundesliga this season compared to their usual dominance and sit second on the league at Christmas behind Favre’s Dortmund. Favre is known for overperforming expected goals, and this year has been no different, meanwhile Bayern have underperformed in terms of expected goals.
Allan is a pretty complete midfielder who played a big role in Sarri’s impressive Napoli side. I don’t think his name is mentioned enough and has only really emerged in recent seasons. I’m not surprised that he attracting a lot of interest from Bayern Munich and PSG.
Thiago, who is one of my favourite players, has the highest defensive output in Kovac’s Bayern team and right back Kimmich is their biggest creator with more than 600 minutes. And Kimmich’s creativity is quite reliant on set pieces.
Allan makes 4.4 tackles per 90 for Napoli while also producing 1.2 interceptions, 1.8 dribbles and 0.17 expected assists. He’s 27 so not quite the young talent that Bayern maybe should be pursuing, but he does bring quality to Bayern’s midfield which lacks some depth. Also, the depth they have is from very defensive players who are naturally defenders.
I would worry that a midfield of Allan and Thiago would lack some physicality and aerial presence though which is my main concern. However, with Thiago’s unfortunate injury record, it is possible for Allan to become their main midfielder and allow Thiago to play further forward.
Napoli have reportedly rejected a €50m for Allan from PSG. So, Bayern have some tough competition for the Brazilian. Overall, I think there could be better options, unless he a replacement for a departing Thiago. The physicality is an issue and how the midfield would work.
Napoli: ⭐⭐
Bayern Munich: ⭐⭐
Allan: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Thanks for reading, please check out the rest of this series as well as my other writing and follow me on Twitter.
